Economist
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts for the third time – expect a further gradual easing to 2.85%
14 August
Key pointsThe RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle.The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash rate...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?
31 July
Key pointsThe last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages.Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Another hawkish RBA hold at 4.35% – expect one more hike later this year
13 August
Key points The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for the second meeting in a row. Some softer than expected readings for underlying inflation, jobs and home prices allowed it to remain in wait and see mode as it “assesses” the impact of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The economics of happiness – why it’s been falling & what to do about it?
30 July
Key points Despite rising GDP per person, measures of happiness have been flat to falling in western countries including Australia. Key drivers are likely to be rising expectations, the rise of social media and falling housing affordability. It...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Nine key charts for investors to keep an eye on amidst oil and AI worries
23 July
Key points: The first half of this year saw good share market returns despite the oil supply shock on the back of the US/Iran War. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the short term. Nine key charts...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why have Australian living standards “fallen” and how do we fix it?
16 July
Key points Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments over the last five years have led to a slump in Australians’ living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025-26 saw lots of noise but strong returns (again) – can it continue?
9 July
Key points While we saw a long list of worries over the last year, 2025-26 saw another financial year of strong returns. Risks around Iran and oil, various other geopolitical issues, sticky inflation and possible further rate hikes and AI related...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Was life really better in the good old days?
9 July
Key points Angst about economic conditions has been running high in recent times. This is evident in chronically low consumer confidence readings and a downtrend in measures of happiness. It’s also arguably evident in the rise of populist...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Teflon share markets – 5 reasons they’re so resilient despite lots of worries
25 June
Key points Despite lots of threats over the last 18 months share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient. This likely reflects a combination of: President Trump’s desire for shares to rise; economic activity data right here right now has...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The RBA undertakes a hawkish pause – we continue to expect a further rise in rates
18 June
Key points After three consecutive rate hikes the RBA left rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, the RBA retained a tightening bias noting that inflation Is “still too high” and is likely to remain so for some time and that it...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Are rate and tax hikes ending Australia’s housing boom?
4 June
Key points National average home prices were flat in May according to Cotality, the weakest since January last year. Prices fell further in Sydney and Melbourne, and the boom time cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are seeing growth slow. The...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Three reasons why it pays to be an optimist as an investor
28 May
Key points The combination of the natural human tendency to focus on bad news, expectations rising beyond the ability of the economy to deliver, the increased availability of information & the rise of social media are likely...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – oil, bond yields, the Budget and the RBA
21 May
Key points The oil supply shock remains a significant threat to economic growth and shares – particularly with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and oil reserves running down. It’s contributing to rising bond yields and putting pressure...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The 2026-27 Budget – responsibility, productivity and fairness – or is it?
14 May
Key points The key changes are a wind back in negative gearing, the taxation of real capital gains, numerous moves to reduce regulation, and modest net budget cuts over five years. The projected deficits are now slightly lower over the budget...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA hikes again to control inflation – lessons learned from the 1970s
7 May
Key points The RBA hiked its cash rate for the third time this year by another 0.25% to 4.35% in response to inflation running above target and concerns that it will likely remain so for longer given price pressures partly flowing from the War...[Read More]